50% increase from the number of cases at present.
By Raif Karerat
WASHINGTON, DC: The number of American women affected by breast cancer will grow 50 percent by 2030, researchers at the National Cancer Institute reported Monday.
Breast cancer already are the most common form of cancer in the United States, with 283,000 diagnosed cases in 2011, reported The Washington Post. That number is predicted to rise to about 441,000 in 2030, according to Philip Rosenberg, a senior investigator in the division of cancer epidemiology and genetics at the National Cancer Institute. The information was released at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research.
Rosenberg theorized the breast cancer data is indicative of three overarching trends: “the increasing number of older women in the population as the Baby Boom generation ages; increased life expectancy that allows more women to develop breast cancer at some time in their lives; and a clear rise in the number of tumors receptive to the hormone estrogen (known as ER-positive breast cancer).” The last trend is probably the result of changes in “circumstances and lifestyles,” he said, but the research model looked at total numbers, not causes, he explained.
More optimistically, Rosenberg projected an eventual decline in ER-negative tumors, which are cited by the Post as more difficult to treat because they do not respond to endocrine therapy. They are expected to decline from about 17 percent of all tumors to about 9 percent, for reasons that are not clear, researchers reported.
In a separate study also published by the national Cancer Institute, the relative survival rate of women with breast cancer was also shown to stay on a steady upward trend. 1975 saw a 75.2 percent survival rate, which rose to 84.6 percent in 1990, and 90.3 and 90.6 percent in 2002 and 2006, respectively.