Strategic tie-ups could upset poll calculations.
By Krishnakumar S.
NEW DELHI: With the AAP throwing the hat in the ring of the parliament elections, giving up its Delhi government, Anna Hazare extending outright support to the Mamatadi’s Trinamool Congress, the division of Andhra Pradesh proving to be the meeting ground of a group of disgruntled regional satraps, and Amma’ s response and RaGa’s counter response on the release of late PM’s assassins, the political juggernaut of the Great Indian Mahabharata seems to be in for more turns, and even more uncertainties.
The pundits, both psephologists as well as the astrologists, are all tightlipped over their predictions, even as they have lots of ‘buts’ and ‘ifs’ in their calculations and predictions now. Are there a lot of sharing of information between the psephologists and astrologers, one doesn’t know? It seems that the statisticians are receiving and providing raw material to the astrologers, in an yet another unusual display of camaraderie between science and faith in a typical Indian fashion.
Even as one loves to hate ‘the mood of the nation surveys’ made in the run up to the elections (given their huge differences), it is always better to start the analysis with some numbers. The most credible of their lot, being that of the CSDS, a perusal of the same would be in order. The January end predictions of the CSDS of BJP inching towards a victory putting its tally over what it could achieve during the 1998 elections.
It also gives to the saffron party 41 to 49 seats in Uttar Pradesh. In fact, reaching unprecedentedly high numbers, topping over its 1998 score would not be possible for the saffron party without good numbers from the north central region, given its sparse presence in the south and east of the country.
The survey further predicts a strong show of the BJP in Bihar, where Nitish who has severed the alliance with Modi is set to eat humble pie. In sum, ceteris paribus, without any pre-poll alliance into consideration, Modi is set to deliver the numbers of the BJP, no wonder his man Friday Amit Shah is stationed at Uttar Pradesh, towards keeping up the momentum.
Given the low numbers predicted for the Congress, which is all-set to be eaten off by the anti-corruption rhetoric in the country, it seems to be going along the Shakespearean lines: the evil that men do live after them, the good get interred in with their bones, and so too it be with the Congress.
Being pushed to two digit figures, now given its underdog role in the run-up to the elections, it might end up getting the benefit of being ignored by the press. Given its situation of distress, it might pay off for the Grand Old Party to go all out for a master stroke , try playing super junior to Mayawati’s BSP in UP and Nitish Kumar’s Samata in Bihar.
Given that there has been an unimaginable consolidation of Mandal and kamandal behind Modi, consolidating the Hindutva as well as the backward caste sentiments, this seems to be taking all that is solid from beneath the feet of the Yadav duo- Mulayam and Lalu, no wonder they are running for cover.
In case, Congress allies with Mayawati in UP,( the CSDS polls predict 10 to 16 for Maya and 4 to 10 fo RaGa in UP) it would consolidate the dalit and minority votes in UP behind this combination ,and thus improve their tally substantially post-alliance, but this is if there is no desertion from the ranks of the SP to the saffron party.
And remember, here are two parties in distress, RaGa’s Congress and Maya’s BSP, together they can become a big combo. This could pull down the tally of the BJP too. As of Bihar, dumping its current partners of Yadav-Paswan duo, the triad of whose credibility quotient is negative, if not zero, the Grand Old Party should go for an aggressive alliance with Samata and its leader Nitish, whose track record in development has received international acclaim, and through this call Modi’s bluff.
Given the freezingly low numbers of the Congress, the collective tally of the Samata and Congress would definitely move up, raising a challenge to BJP, and even pushing Lalu and Paswan to deserved wilderness.
Indeed, no development theorist or political economists in the current world would like to see Nitish out of the throne of Bihar in the larger interests of Bihar.
Even as the anti-corruption tirade of the AAP seems to strike a chord with the middle classes in the towns as well as with the emigrants in distant countries, the forays it could make into the hinterlands seems to be limited.
The lackluster response of the mainstream parties to the concerns of cronyism, nepotism and corruption, which has been raised by the AAP is a matter of concern.
In case, they creatively interact with these issues in the run-up to the search for candidates, it is a battle for AAP half won.
But corruption alone could never be an election issue, the heterogeneous coexistence of the plurality of ideas have been a defining distinction of the vibrant Indian polity. It is to be seen how, through the fine art of political coalition, RaGa’s Congress would be able to stitch a coalition that deftly resists any threat to this plural and syncretic tradition from saffron brigade, particularly so, if their number crosses a particular limit.
So as the Indian political juggernaut moves into elections 2014, predictions of clear mandate might enable new bonds of coalition, which might add an element of uncertainty and suspense.
(Krishnakumar S. teaches economics at Sri Venkateswara College, University of Delhi.)