814 million voters, 930,000 polling stations.
By Rajiv Theodore
NEW DELHI: Across India – be it in the concourses of the Chandni Chowk metro station, in the grimy Byculla Love Lane, in the narrow and bustling sidewalks of Hastings or the sweltering Amma messes of Madurai, conversation is all about the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
From April 7th, when the first of the nine phases of polling start and ends on May 12, then to the next level of counting which goes on till end of May 16th, India would be in the grip of a frenzy even surpassing the magic of the 46-day Rio carnival.
According to an estimate, this democratic process would cost the government Rs. 30,000 crore. It is often billed as the world’s most complex exercise where about 814 million Indians are expected to cast their votes in favor of dozens of political parties with thousands of aspirants in 543 polling constituencies. The 2014 elections would surely be larger than the previous one where 717 million were the estimated electorate.
A whopping 930,000 polling stations is in the process of being set up in the entire country in regions spanning such disparate geographies which boasts of the highest and coldest mountain ranges in the world, to scorching deserts to pristine coasts and emerald islands. The sheer number of the polling stations also ensures that nobody would be required to go beyond a radius of two kilometers to cast their vote.
There would be about 1.2 million electronic voting machines to make the polls a smooth exercise in a country where booth-capturing, rigging and violence is all part of the polls. Some of the candidates have tainted backgrounds, having been booked on charges of murder, kidnapping and assault just to name a few. In India, criminalization of politics is a hard reality or sometimes even a necessity; muscle power becomes the king in many instances.
Amongst the keenly watched contests would be the battle for Benares where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had bagged the last six elections riding on voter sentiment emanating from the Ram Temple – Babri Masjid movement. This time, Narendra Modi would be pitted against Arvind Kejriwal of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Mukhtar Ansari of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The Congress is yet to throw in their challenge.
Amethi, a small town near Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh would see Rahul Gandhi pitted against former soap star Smriti Irani, who rose from a Modi critic to his close aide. Another town in Uttar Pradesh, Kanpur, would resound with the contest between BJP veteran Murli Manohar Joshi and Congress leader Sriprakash Jaiswal, Surendra Mohan Agarwal of Samajwadi Party (SP), Dr. Mahmood Rehmani of AAP and Mohammed Saleem of BSP.
In Amritsar, Punjab, first timer Arun Jaitley from BJP, an attorney by training, would be pitted against Amarinder Singh, veteran Sikh Congress leader and the state chief minister between 2002 and 2007. Amritsar has 60% Sikh voters, making it a tough call for the lawyer.
The capital of Punjab, Chandigarh, the city designed meticulously by the French architect Le Corbusier, has an element of glamour with debutants – former Miss India and actress Gul Panag holding the flag aloft for AAP and Kiron Kher, another actress, representing BJP, clashing against each other. Congress sitting MP Pawan Kumar Bansal is expected to have a tough time facing these women.
Eyeballs would also be on South Mumbai. It would be Congress MP Priya Dutt, daughter of late veteran actor Sunil Dutt versus Poonam Mahajan of BJP, daughter of the late Pramod Mahajan, facing each other.
The national capital of Delhi would see blazing contests at several places. In the Chandni Chowk area, BJP leader Harsh Vardhan will be up against Kapil Sibal of Congress and Ashutosh of AAP. Meanwhile, Congress’ Ajay Maken, BJP’s Meenakshi Lekhi and journalist Ashish Khetan of AAP are preparing for another triangular fight. East of Delhi will have another interesting contest where two-time MP Sandeep Deikshit is being challenged by AAP candidate Rajmohan Gandhi (grandson of Mahatma Gandhi) and BJP’s Mahesh Giri.
According to a survey conducted by Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd, an investment advisory firm, India is heading towards a hung Parliament. This is despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party with 145-155 seats and the Congress, despite its slide, would also come in a close second with 130 to 140 seats.
The study covered 10 states —Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat and Rajasthan where critical elements of caste, the importance of pre-poll alliances, the role of governance, electoral cycles and other yardsticks to measure the pulse of electoral politics in India were taken.
On special scrutiny was the state of Uttar Pradesh that sends 80 lawmakers to the crucial 545-member lower house of the parliament, the Lok Sabha. There, the BJP is expected to make gains via the upper caste votes spearheaded by Modi in Varanasi. The survey said the SP could win 25-27 seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 21-23 and the BJP 21-23, leaving just 7-9 for the Congress that had won 23 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
In Maharashtra, which has 40 Lok Sabha seats, the opposition Shiv Sena and BJP, which are alliance partners, may cash in on the anti-incumbency factor and win seats. It predicts the saffron alliance of the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win 31 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats.
In the state of Andhra Pradesh, the Congress is reeling after been battered by the crisis arising out of the demand for a separate Telangana state. The party may face further setback because of the newly formed YSR Congress.
In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Congress may not be able to improve its situation but its recent victory in Karnataka could be repeated. In the politically volatile region of Bihar the split in the Janata Dal (United)-BJP alliance could help the BJP mobilize upper caste votes.
In Tamil Nadu, the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is poised to sweep the elections. In Gujarat, the Modi wave is doing all the talking, while in in West Bengal, the traditional bastion of the red brigade which is now dominated by the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee is expected to retain power.
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