The sci-fi saga, which collected $770 million in six days, will need a Christmas miracle to do that.
Just six days in, with a worldwide box office gross of nearly $770 million, and with only seven days left, does Star Wars: The Force Awakens have what it takes to become the biggest movie of 2015?
Currently, Jurassic World, with a worldwide box office gross of $1.68 billion, is the highest grossing movie of the year. Jurassic World is also the 3rd highest grossing film of all time, unadjusted for inflation.
At this point in Jurassic World’s run, it had amassed about $280 million domestically, a great feat. However, this fails in comparison to what The Force Awakens has been earning. In fact, the sci-fi saga had earned more than that on its fourth day running. There’s no question on whether or not the seventh film in the Star Wars franchise will surpass Jurassic World in box office numbers, but the real question is when, and how quickly?
The Force Awakens is sitting on $363 million at home right now, about 30 percent greater than what JW had made in its first six days. In 13 days, Jurassic World had made $436 million domestically and became the fastest film to hit $1 billion worldwide.
If The Force Awakens continues to earn at a rate 30 percent more than that of Jurassic World, then on its 13th day, December 31, 2015, it would have made $566 million at home and $733 million internationally, bringing its worldwide gross to $1.3 billion. An incredible box office performance that would be, yet it would still fall about $350 million short of Jurassic World’s worldwide gross.
However, this isn’t considering the legs Star Wars could possibly have. Just like another December film, Avatar, Star Wars could see small percentage drops each day. Jurassic World saw a 49 percent decrease in its second weekend, earning a record breaking $106 million.
While there is no chance that Star Wars will see a decrease like that of Avatar (1.8 percent), it is highly likely that its decrease will be much smaller than that of the dinosaur sequel. A more realistic drop for it would be around 30-50 percent, meaning that in its second weekend it could be seeing anywhere from $125 to $175 million, an impressive amount for a blockbuster to make in its opening weekend.
Considering it will make another $36 million or so on Thursday, and adding its hypothetical $175 million second weekend, the domestic box office gross of the mega-flick would be about $570 million on its tenth day. Right now, the international gross of the film amounts to be 53 percent of its $765 million worldwide, so using this same percentage, its international gross would be $630 million, producing a worldwide gross of $1.2 billion on its tenth day. In order to surpass JW before 2016, it would need to make another $460 million worldwide on non-weekend days.
Even if it had Avatar level drops, making an unprecedented $242 million in its second weekend, and continued to make around $35 million each non-weekend day, with international earnings contributing 55 percent of its total gross, it would stand at $1.49 billion, again just short of Jurassic World’s final worldwide gross.
Although Star Wars: The Force Awakens will definitely surpass Jurassic World in the long run — and quite possibly Titanic and Avatar, too (although that is a whole another story) — it will truly need a Christmas miracle to break one record that Jurassic World will appear to keep, the highest grossing film of 2015.