Harris, Michelle Obama lead for 2024 if Biden doesn’t run: poll

Kamala HarrisTrump leads in hypothetical 2024 Republican primary

Vice President Kamala Harris and former First Lady Michelle Obama lead the Democratic field if President Joe Biden decides not to run in 2024, while former president Donald Trump leads in hypothetical 2024 Republican primary, according to two recent polls.

A recent Hill-HarrisX poll found poll found Harris in the lead among likely candidates, with 13 percent of respondents supporting her. Michelle Obama came in second at 10 percent.

All other candidates listed received 5 percent or less support, with most voters surveyed still unsure of who they would back if Biden chose not to run.

Other candidates in the poll included 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Michael Bloomberg, Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg.

Thirty-six percent said they were “unsure” who they would vote for, while 13 percent said they would choose someone who was not on the list.

Read: Kamala Harris does not feel “misused or underused” in Biden team (November 18, 2021)

Biden has said before that he intends to run in 2024. If he won, he would be 81 years old at the start of his second term. Among poll respondents who voted for Biden in 2020, 22 percent said they would vote for Harris, the most of out of any candidate in the poll.

The poll surveyed 939 registered voters from Nov. 18 to Nov. 19. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Meanwhile, Trump maintains a dominant lead over other Republicans in a potential 2024 presidential primary, according to a survey from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released to The Hill.

Trump gets the support of 47 percent of registered Republican and independent voters in a primary, 37 points higher than his nearest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who comes in second with 10 percent.

No other contender breaks double digits, with former Vice President Mike Pence coming in third with 9 percent. Another 19 percent said they were unsure.

In a field in which Trump does not run, Pence holds a narrow lead, with 23 percent support, just ahead of DeSantis’s 21 percent. In that field, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) is the only other Republican breaking double digits, with 12 percent.

Read: We finally have a poll gauging Kamala Harris’ support in 2024 if Biden doesn’t run (December 1, 2021)

In a scenario in which Harris is the Democrat’s nominee in 2024, the poll shows she trails DeSantis by a 42 percent to 40 percent margin in a head-to-head match, while she would trail Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) by a 42 percent to 39 percent margin.

She’s tied with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 41 percent among registered voters.

The survey from Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll was conducted among 1,578 registered voters Oct. 26-28. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

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