Analysis was wrong, though, in 2010.
By Deepak Chitnis
WASHINGTON, DC: Researchers at investment bank Goldman Sachs have released a report analyzing the economics of the upcoming soccer FIFA World Cup, predicting that host nation Brazil will beat Argentina 3-1 in the final to win the trophy.
The report, aptly titled “The World Cup and Economics 2014,” is the fifth time that the investment banking powerhouse has compiled numbers and statistics to analyze the economics of soccer’s biggest event. The first time Goldman Sachs did this was in 1998, during the Paris games; now, with Rio de Janeiro gearing up for the start of the World Cup onJune 12.
According to their analysis, the FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) World Cup will once again be won by Brazil, which would make it the country’s sixth win and would set a record for the number of times a country has won the trophy.
Goldman Sachs analyzed the probability that each country has of winning the cup, based on factors such as their records leading up to the event, and other intangibles. In total, researchers looked at close to 14,000 matches, compiling data from as far back as 1960, to reach their findings.
By their estimations, Brazil is the clear favorite, with a 48.5% chance of emerging victorious. Argentina follows far behind at #2, with a 14.1% chance of taking the title. Germany has the third-best chance of winning the World Cup, with just 11.4%. England was given a paltry 1.4% chance of winning the finals.
On its road to victory, Brazil will topple the Netherlands, Uruguay, and Germany. Argentina will apparently beat Ecuador, Portugal, and Spain en route to the finals, which it will lose, according to the analysis.
While some would say that numbers never lie, the Goldman Sachs report has not always been accurate. At the last FIFA World Cup, held in South Africa in 2010, Brazil was also expected to win the tournament and had a percentage of 26.2%, but lost in the quarterfinals. Spain, which only had a 15.7% chance of winning, ultimately took the title.
This time, however, Brazil’s 48.5% odds are almost double that of the 26.2% they had in 2010, meaning that perhaps Goldman Sachs may get it right this time after all. The world will know for sure on July 13, when the finals are held in Rio de Janeiro.
In addition to predicting which team will win, the Goldman Sachs report also analyzes the impact that the FIFA World Cup will have on individual countries, and what the event means for stock markets around the world. Those interested in reading the report can do so here.