The summit’s success will be measured based on whether or not a broad consensus is reached on core issues.
By Syed Iqbal Hasnain
SEATTLE: The global political response to climate change began with the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, when an international environmental treaty known as the UN Framework of Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adapted. Popularly known as the “Rio Convention,” it put in place a framework for action aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) to avoid dangerous human interferences with the climate system.
Since the mid-1990s, nations have met every year to review the convention implementation. The first such “conference of parties,” or COP1, was held in Berlin 1995. This year’s conference, which starts in Paris on November 30, will be the 21st overall.
The COP21 is seen by global community as an opportunity to achieve a legally binding agreement for, at least, a modest reduction in emissions. If global emission could be reduced by 20 percent over the next 50 years, we would be delaying the projected doubling of concentrations by only 10 years, from 2065 to 2075.
Earth’s climate today is changing so dramatically that it is transforming land and sea, affecting all types of ecosystems. Effects run far and wide, as rich and poor communities across the globe are being affected by high temperatures, extreme weather, floods, droughts, storm surges, shifting breeding and migration seasons, changing food availability, new disease patterns, and rapid ice melt, and rising seas.
I had a chance to address some of these issues at COP15, where I was a delegate. In my presentation on the melting of Himalayan glaciers, I strongly argued — based on my field-based scientific database — that that Himalayan glaciers are retreating at a staggering rate. The meltwater of these glaciers are crucial to some 40 percent of the world population. The Hindu Kush Himalaya is the climate change hot spot. The rapid melting of glaciers alters the lifestyle and livelihood of the local communities by bringing more floods and drought to downstream communities.
However, in the 20 conferences so far, nations have not been able to agree on cutting carbon emissions.
At COP15, which was held amidst worldwide calls for action on climate change, a meaningful agreement was nearly reached — but only nearly. Unfortunately, no legally binding agreement was signed in Copenhagen and world leaders from 196 countries, including President Barack Obama, returned disappointed.
The Copenhagen Summit did agree to an objective of reducing emissions in order to limit global warming to below 2 degree Celsius. This was subsequently established by all countries as a part of the Cancun agreements reached at COP16, held in the Mexican city of Cancun.
Experts argue that limiting climate change to this level would avoid the most catastrophic and irreversible changes to climate system. In the next summit, at COP17, held in Durban, South Africa, a Green Climate Fund was established to help developing nations implement practices that would counter climate change.
As the world leaders prepare to meet on Monday, there are a number of challenges in front of them.
China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, has been underreporting the amount of coal it consumes each year. It is estimated that China is burning 17 percent more coal each year than its government has disclosed. This implies that China emits close to a billion tons of additional carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year.
This explains why China’s air quality is so poor. Lack of transparency in publishing the database of coal burning in China will definitely complicate the Paris negotiations. Deliberate underreporting in annual coal consumption will create huge trust-deficit in developing a universal policy to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions.
India, the world’s third biggest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to source 40 percent of its electricity from renewable and other low carbon sources by 2030. This is in spite of the fact that more than 300 million Indians — out of the country’s population of 1.3 billion people — have no access to electricity. India’s population is projected to grow to 1.5 billion people by 2030.
The country has also committed to cut the “emission intensity” of its economy — a ratio of carbon emission per unit of GDP — by up to 35 percent by 2030.
However, analysts predict that by 2030, India’s coal consumption could triple, or quadruple. Make no mistake — this will be a recipe for global disaster. If India continues to take fossil fuel and coal-heavy path to eradicate its poverty during next 15 years, as China did in the past 15 years to remove its poverty, it will be catastrophic.
Germany is the one country that has made some progress. Europe’s largest economy is going through a major energy transformation. In 2014, about 27 percent of the country’s electricity came from renewable sources such as wind and solar power, three times what it got a decade ago and more than twice what the United States (13 percent) gets today. Following a major offshore earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011, a 15-meter high tsunami disabled the power supply and cooling of three Fukushima Daiichi reactors. All three cores largely melted in the first few days and contaminated water was released from the three units. Official figures show that more than 1,000 people died in that unfortunate nuclear power accident. Strong anti-nuclear lobby forced the government of Angela Merkel to shut all its 17 nuclear power plants by 2022. Nine have been switched off so far. The loss in power generation is being compensated by renewables. Ironically, even though renewables are booming, Germany’s use of lignite, the dirtiest form of coal, for power plants, hasn’t declined.
The emerging economies of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are going ahead with the economic transitions by 2030, as catalogued in their intent documents submitted to COP21 secretariat. However, they will continue their massive urbanization process, grow their economies and move to high value industries. The important question is whether they could decarbonize their economies by fast-tracking the development of renewable energy, or continue to follow the fossil fuel path.
It is in this backdrop that heads of state and government from 159 countries are gathering in Paris in on November 30 to work closely to achieve a legally binding universal agreement on climate, with the sole aim of keeping global warming below 2 degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
However, many skeptics say that the so-called 2 degree Celsius threshold is impossible to achieve as we need technologies to decarbonize economies of China and India by mid-century. The two countries have to employ expensive carbon captive technologies and vastly increase forest cover, to suck excessive carbon from atmosphere. Both propositions look difficult to implement, they argue.
The obstacle is not a physical one — it is rather political and social. We can emit only 300 billion more tons (270 billion more metric tons) of carbon into atmosphere and keep warming below 2 degree Celsius. At the current rate of emissions of more than 10 billion tons a year, we will burn through this “carbon budget” in just three decades. According to a recent analysis, staying below 2 degree Celsius would require that a third of all proven reserves of oil, half of all natural gas and 80 percent of coal remain under ground. That, indeed, is a tall order to achieve. It means that we have to phase out substantial use of fossil fuels immediately.
The world can still avoid dangerous levels of global warming if global emissions stay below 1,000 gig tons of carbon in order not to exceed the 2 degree Celsius threshold. However, by 2011, countries have already emitted over half of this budget, and if current emissions trend continues, we will exceed it before 2050.
The success of COP21 will be measured based on whether or not a broad consensus is reached on the core issues such as legal nature of the universal agreement, differentiation of responsibility among developed and emerging economies, ways to strengthen climate adaptation and support for least developed countries, rules to ensure transparency and accountability are the bottom line for the success of Paris COP21.
All developed nations and emerging economies have to work closely and confront the challenge of global warming, which is real and happening. All major five top emitters including, India and the United States, must be part of the solution.
(Prof. Syed Iqbal Hasnain is an Indian glaciologist and educationist, based in Seattle, WA. He served as a vice-chancellor of Calicut University, Kerala, and Professor of Environmental sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is a recipient of Padma Shri, India’s fourth highest civilian award.)
1 Comment
With all due respect, per Rubino (2013), there will be one and only one valid measure of success for COP21: keeping fossil waste byproducts out of the air.
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That doesn’t take consensus and confronting challenges, but unanimity and action without waiting or guessing or accusing or holding back until someone else goes first.
We’ve had sixty years of that nonsense since the time of Plass and Lamb.