Litchtman says that his system has correctly predicted every election since 1984
Professor Allan Lichtman, a Washington D.C-based professor who predicted Donald Trump’s victory, has made another prediction that Trump will be eventually impeached by a Republican Congress.
In conversations with the Washington post in September and October, Professor Litchman outlined how President Obama’s second term set the Democrats up for a tight race, and historically-based prediction system of what he calls “keys” tipped the balance in Trump’s favor, even if just barely.
“I’m going to make another prediction. This one is not based on a system; it’s just my gut. They don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable. They’d love to have Pence –an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook,” Litchman told to the Washington post.
Litchman’s prediction is almost similar to what an op-ed columnist for the New York Times David Brooks said about Trump’s future within the next year.
“Trump’s bigotry, dishonesty and promise-breaking will have to be denounced. We can’t go morally numb. But he needs to be replaced with a program that addresses the problems that fueled his ascent. After all, the guy will probably resign or be impeached within a year. The future is closer than you think,” Brooks said in his column.
The Washington Post report says that Lichtman uses very different methods for predictions than pollsters and data-based prognosticators. Litchtman says that his system has correctly predicted every election since 1984 (specifically, his predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote). And Lichtman has his own criticism for data-based predictions.