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What are the chances of Indian American candidates in the midterm?

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The polling aggregation site FiveThirtyEight.com says the reelection of all four Indian American Members of Congress a near certainty. Among challengers, Tipirneni has 22.4 percent chance of winning; Kulkarni has 19.4 percent chance and Pureval 16.5 percent chance.  

With the midterm elections less than four days away, all four Indian American members of Congress are sure bet to get reelected, according various polls and forecasters.

Rep. Ami Bera, the dean of Indian American congressional delegation, who barely scraped through in the past three elections, has a 99% chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, a popular polling aggregation website.

Besides these four, more than half-a-dozen Indian Americans are running for Congress. They include Hiral Tipirneni in Arizona’s 8th Congressional district, Anita Malik (Arizona 6th), Aftab Pureval (Ohio 1st), Sri Kulkarni (Texas 22nd), Chintan Desai (Arkansas 1st) and Sanjay Patel (Florida 8th).

Here are the odds for these candidates, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

REP. AMI BERA
Party: Democrat
District: California 7th
Main opponent: Andrew Grant (Republican)

FiveThirtyEight.com says Bera has a 99.4 percent chance of winning as of Friday. Bera won his last election against Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones narrowly. Two years earlier, he won the district by a little over 1,400 votes. In 2012, when he first got elected to the House, the victory margin against Republican Dan Lungren was 2 percent.

REP. PRAMILA JAYAPAL

Party: Democrat
District:
Washington State 7th
Main opponent:
Craig Keller (Republican)

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Jayapal’s victory is a near certainty (99.9 percent). The district is the 20th-most-Democratic seat in the country.

REP. RO KHANNA

Party: Democrat
District:
California 17th
Main opponent:
Ron Cohen (Republican)

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Khanna has a 99.9 percent chance of winning the Silicon Valley district. The seat is overwhelmingly Democratic — 47 point more Democratic than the country as a whole.

REP. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI

Party: Democrat
District:
Illinois 8th
Main opponent:
Jitendra “JD” Diganvker

FiveThirtyEight.com gives 99.9 percent chance to Krishnamoorthi for retaining the seat against fellow Indian American Diganvker. The district is heavily Democratic — 135th-most-Democratic leaning than the country as a whole.

HIRAL TIPIRNENI

Party: Democrat
District:
Arizona 8th
Main opponent: Rep. Debbie Lesko (Republican)

FiveThirtyEight.com gives Tipirneni 22.4 percent — or 2 in 9 — chance of winning against incumbent Lesko, who had defeated her in a special election earlier this year. Tipirneni has outraised Lesko by a huge margin (nearly $4 million vs a little over half a million.)

ANITA MALIK

Party: Democrat
District:
Arizona 6th
Main opponent:
Rep. David Schweikert (Republican)

FiveThirtyEight.com gives Malik only a 9.2 percent chance of winning against the incumbent. The district is the 152nd-most-Republican seat in the country, according to the website.

AFTAB PUREVAL

Party: Democrat
District:
Ohio 1st
Main opponent:
Rep. Steve Chabot (Republican)

FiveThirtyEight.com gives Pureval 16.5 percent chance of wresting the seat from Chabot. The district is rated as the 201st-most-Republican-leaning seat. Pureval has huge money advantage over the incumbent having raised more than $3 million.

SRI PRESTON KULKARNI

Party: Democrat
District:
Texas 22nd
Main opponent: Rep. Pete Olson (Republican)

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Kulkarni has 19.5 percent chance of unseating the incumbent. The district is heavily Republican — 132nd-most-Republican in the country.

CHINTAN DESAI

Party: Democrat
District:
Arkansas 1st
Main opponent:
Rick Crawford (Republican)

FiveThirtyEight.com gives only 0.1 percent chance to Desai, a first-time candidate, against the incumbent. The district is 30 percent more Republican than the country as a whole.

SANJAY PATEL

Party: Democrat
District:
Florida 8th
Main opponent:
Bill Posey (R)

FiveThirtyEight.com gives only 0.7 percent chance for winning in a district that is 23.5 point more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole. Posey had won the last election by nearly 31 percent.

JITENDRA “JD’ DIGANVKER
Party:
Republican
District:
Illinois 8th
Main opponent:
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi

FiveThirtyEight.com gives Diganvker only 0.1 percent chance of winning against fellow Indian American Krishnamoorthi.


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