Brookings’ India Project director Tanvi Madan discusses Trump’s India visit.
Tanvi Madan is the director of The India Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. Her new book, Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations during the Cold War, was released earlier this month. In the book, she argues that China’s influence on India-U.S. relationship has been an ongoing phenomenon.
Madan earned her Ph.D. in public policy from the University of Texas at Austin. Just ahead of President Trump’s two-day visit to India, she talked to Brajesh Upadhya about Namaste Modi. The interview is available on the streaming service Neestream.
Tell us what are your expectations from President Trump’s upcoming visit to India?
You will see in this visit that it’ll be reflective of the convergences in the relationship and the divergences. I think you’ll also see how India’s had to adjust to President Trump versus previous presidents it’s dealt with.
Now, very quickly on convergences — I think we’ll see quite a bit on the Indo-Pacific side and this idea of free and open Indo-Pacific, the two countries working together in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. So, think defense deals. India has already essentially cleared the acquisition of 24 multi-role helicopters from the US for its Navy.
I think you will see perhaps one or two more defense deals maybe not during the visit but very soon after. I think you will see some perhaps agreements on improving intelligence sharing. I don’t know how much of they’ll an answer that but I think they’ll move forward on that front.
I think also on the convergences side, you see agreements on things that people kind of find boring but are kind of interesting and crucial intellectual property agreement. (There could be) some movement on the nuclear… space collaboration and science and technology but particularly space. So, I think, I would read that joint statement carefully, it might not have some of the big-ticket things but it actually will give you detail and will show you how deeply the engagement is in process.
Let’s talk about divergences and trade deals. Do we see anything possibly moving there?
On the divergences side, I think, we will see some concern. If a trade deal materializes, I suspect, people will say, that it’s not enough. If it doesn’t materialize, people will wonder why both sides could not get to an agreement. So, I think people would worry on the trade side and the trade frictions that if you couldn’t even get a basic deal done what about the big picture stuff. And I think, whether or not they get a trade deal, India, at least will be hoping, and advocates of the India relationship in the Trump administration (will be hoping) that these trade issues don’t bleed over into the strategic side of the relationship which has been moving quickly. They will be hoping that at least, till the next upcoming election in November, none of this gets out of hand. So, I think you’ll see that divergence there.
You talked about how India had to adjust to President Trump versus previous presidents it’s dealt with in the past. Tell us some more on this?
In terms of how India’s had to adjust. There are certain things that India doesn’t usually do with American presidents visiting. Having tens of thousands of people in a stadium, giving an American president that kind of audience. It’s been unusual in recent years, there’s been some reluctance to do that. But I think, the other thing you will see is for example, if President Trump says something let’s say awkward on Kashmir or on Pakistan, any other Indian government would be very offended. I think people will just look the other way.
Other thing is, Indian governments have not tended to announce or discuss defense deals around president’s visit (and have maintained) saying strategic relationship not transactional. But I think with this president they recognize that they do need to put something on the table.
President Trump is likely to be quite happy with the crowd size and he’ll be tweeting it to his supporters. What do you think it’s there in it for Prime Minister Modi?
So, I should say, the crowd size thing is important because we usually don’t think of optics as deliverables. I think, in this visit, because President Trump really does care about audience size, he likes to be loved or loves to be loved, I think the Indian side thinks of the optics (and) the huge thing that they’re producing as something that’s a deliverable.
For Prime Minister Modi, I think there are a few different things. I think he is coming off of a couple of difficult months at home. The economic growth rate has been stalling, there have been protests on the street, there’s been if not loud criticism but some kind of concern being expressed by very friendly governments on some of his policies. So, I think he will see this moment, just as he did (see) Howdy Modi. This Namaste Trump (will be a) as kind of an endorsement of him as his ability to show the Indian public that look I told you, I’m gonna bring the world to India. I am bringing the most powerful man in the world. And he is coming here and addressing this crowd and backing me.
I think, from a more strategic point of view the US has now become a crucial enough or the crucial relationship for India. Indian governments have been and this has been true now for twenty years are doing a lot to preserve that relationship and move it forward. And that’s important both because they are faced with managing the rise of China which they cannot do alone. (Also) Because the U.S. is crucial as an economic partner both as a source of jobs, as source of investment and technology. But I think there is also this aspect as Prime Minister Modi, who has that deep connect to the diaspora. So, some of that message is for the Indian diaspora world over but particularly in the U.S. I think he will have that as an audience in mind as well.
Prime Minister Modi had a great relationship with President Obama and then again President Trump — two very different personalities. Does that speak about Modi’s diplomacy? Or is it the U.S. interest which has stabilized in India, that whoever is in the White House and whoever is at 7 Race Course Road it’s going to be the same?
I think it’s quite interesting because you know people used to say this about Manmohan Singh. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh used to get along famously with both President Bush and President Obama and now you’ve seen two American presidents engage very well with the Indian Prime Minister. I think, what this shows is that for Prime Minister Modi he’s recognized that particularly President Trump but also in general the leader – level connect matters; it matters especially in a relationship like U.S. and India where the institutional cooperation is still developing. Unless there’s that top-level focus and at least positivity you can’t move the relationship beyond a certain point. So, I think that is what is reflective. So, when various American presidents make it a point — President Obama got along with Prime Minister Singh and Prime Minister Modi, or Prime Minister Modi getting along with two presidents. The fact that presidents and prime ministers on both sides are making efforts with very different people. Are they these true bromances? I don’t know, but they are making sure that it looks good and it feels good to the other side, because they think the relationship itself matters.
Watch the full interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SrvrDjlHw4&t=184s