Disappointment and hope goes hand in hand.
By Rajiv Theodore
NEW DELHI: Everyone wants a good meeting, I mean, when the heads of states decide to call on each other. A grand welcome, a satisfying deliberation (read lots of investment opportunities) and an eye-moistening adieu. We look up in askance when such things do not happen especially when the meeting is between the two great dynamos in Asia, India and China who together command 35% of the world’s population.
It is in this context that China’s President Xi Jinping came calling (a three day visit to India which concluded last week), a move rather unprecedented in the relations between the two nations after they faced almost five decades of extreme mistrust and a full-fledged war.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked tough on the border skirmishes and violations while Xi did underplay these factors as just ‘’incidents’’. On the other hand, there was this grand hope that China would pledge at least $100 billion to India’s starving infrastructure sectors but what really happened was only $20 billion to India spread over the next five years. Also, there was this hype of China surpassing Japan’s recent investment promise of $35 billion.
Why this scale down is anybody’s guess. It would of course take time and it is maybe too premature to hazard a guess to find substantive answers. But then it is a bit too tempting for some plausible arguments.
The border issue, one of the most contentious factors rocking the boat of relationship has not yet died. In fact it reared its head on the eve and even during the visit of the Chinese president. Modi’s stern handling of the border problem vis a vis with his Chinese counterpart could be a case in point. Then there was this visit by Indian President Pranab Mukherjee to Vietnam, with whom China’s had territorial disputes. It was during this recent visit that India struck some deals in energy.
The other reason could be that the Chinese, known for their nimble footedness, could have changed strategic tact and must have opted for a more cautious wait and watch policy— a grim reminder that an element of trust deficit still exist. This also drives home the point that the saga of the almost five decades of uneasy military relations and a full-fledged war has not been entirely swept under the carpet.
But one should not lose sight of the fact that the Chinese president came and spent time in India and sincerely mulled over contentious issues and did take the relationship to the next level, a move that has no parallels in recent memory. Consider these:
The Indian Railways which is in dire in need for an overhaul would be getting Chinese help. Apart from help to refurbish its stations, China would also help set up a Railway University in India, one of the first of its kind.
They would also help set up two industrial-parks, one each in Gujarat and Maharashtra. The EXIM bank of China has extended a credit line of $1.8 billion and $1.1 billion to ICICI.
Then there is the Bangladesh China India & Myanmar (BCIM), where China and India have promised to pitch in to make this economic corridor into a reality.
India need not be upset over this overall. This is just a small step in the right direction. There is need for more such moves that would help pitchfork the two huge neighbors into a meaningful relationship that would look beyond border clashes and territorial aggrandizement. Extreme levels of statesmanship is required by leaders of the two sides and loads of time and patience, which is the key.
(Rajiv Theodore is India Bureau Chief, The American Bazaar)