Muslim-born children will outnumber all others in the world by 2035. And, by 2060, Muslims, Christians and Hindus will grow 70, 34 and 27 percent, respectively. The research indicates that the Sikhs and Jains would decrease slightly in number.
The number of babies born to Muslim mothers is increasing at the fastest pace in the world. According to Pew Research Center’s report released on Wednesday, Christians constitute the largest population in the world, followed by Muslims. The Center estimates the total population on Earth to be 7.3 billion people, in 2015. Of this, 70 percent is made up of just three faiths i.e. Christians, Muslims and Hindus.
Individually, Christians, Muslims and Hindus number 2.3 billion, 1.8 billion and 1.1 billion, respectively. While the Christian-born children were 33 percent of the total population between 2010 and 2015, the Muslim-born were little behind at 31 percent.
However, a closer look on the percentage increase in birth rate in recent years reveals a different trend. Â Making 24 percent of the world population, Muslim are growing by 31 percent. In comparison, 31 percent of Christian population is growing by 33 percent, which is just little more than its share in the world population. In other words, percentage increase in Muslim-born children is much more than Christian-born. As per projections, between 2055 and 2060 Muslim-born babies would surpass Christian-born by six million.
By 2035 Muslim-born would outnumber all others; after 2060 Muslims would be largest group in the world population.
After adjusting the death rates, total population changes and few other variables, the research concludes, that by 2035 Muslim-born children would outnumber all others. And, by 2060 the Muslim population would nearly match that of Christians.
The Center estimates that between 2015 and 2060 the world’s population would increase by 32 percent, to 9.6 billion. Over that same period, the number of Muslims – the major religious group with the youngest population and the highest fertility – is projected to increase by 70%. The number of Christians is projected to rise by 34%, slightly faster than the global population overall yet far more slowly than Muslims,†the Pew report read.
The research concluded, “As a result, according to Pew Research Center projections, by 2060, the count of Muslims (3.0 billion, or 31% of the population) will near the Christian count (3.1 billion, or 32%).”
Hindus to grow by 27 percent; but, by 2060, Hindus will lag behind in overall percentage.
The report projects that the Hindus who constitute the fourth largest religious group, after religious “nonesâ€, would rise by 27 percent from 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion in 2060. The religious “nones†includes babies born to mothers who do not affiliate themselves with any faith. It also includes people who identify as atheist or agnostic, the research elaborate. “While religiously unaffiliated people currently make up 16% of the global population, only an estimated 10% of the world’s newborns between 2010 and 2015 were born to religiously unaffiliated mother,†the report read. “By 2055 to 2060, just 9% of all babies will be born to religiously unaffiliated women, while more than seven-in-ten will be born to either Muslims (36%) or Christians (35%).â€
Although Hindus would increase by 27 percent, but they would witness a slight decline in overall percentage. In 2015, Hindus made 15.1 percent of the world population; by 2060 they would fall to 14.5 percent. In other words, percentage increase in the number of Hindu-born children would be less than the overall increase in the global population.
Sikhs and Jains, among others, will witness decline in numbers.
In the “other religions†category, the report said that Sikhs is the largest faith with population of 25 million in 2015, according to the World Religion Database. Nonetheless, the total number of Sikhs would see a slight decline by 2060.
“All other religions combined – an umbrella category that includes Baha’is, Jains, Sikhs, Taoists and many smaller faiths – also are projected to decrease slightly in number, from a total of approximately 59.7 million in 2015 to 59.4 million in 2060.”
Muslims and Christians to see more population concentration in sub-Saharan Africa.
The report projects that the religious groups would see change in regional distribution as well. The Center projects that Muslims living in the Asia-Pacific religion would decline by 10 percent by 2060. According to Pew research, “By 2060, 27% of the global Muslim population is projected to be living in the region, up from 16% in 2015. By contrast, the share of Muslims living in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to decline over the period from 61% to 50%. The share of Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to hold steady at 20%.”
Similarly, Christian population is expected to increase more in sub-Saharan Africa than in Europe and North America. “For example, the share of Christians worldwide who live in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase dramatically between 2015 and 2060, from 26% to 42%, due to high fertility in the region. Meanwhile, religious switching and lower fertility will drive down the shares of the global Christian population living in Europe and North America,†the report elaborates.
Hindus and Buddhists will continue to live in the Asia-Pacific region, the report adds.
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